The works and customs of mankind do not seem to be very suitable material to which to apply scientific induction.
– Alan Turing (1912-1954), English mathematician, computer scientist, logician, cryptanalyst and philosopher
In mid-March 2021, the EU drafted and published the new Horizon work program for the space sector. Horizon is the European funding program intended for strategic research areas. To give an idea of the magnitude of this program, the funds for Horizon 2020 are around 85 billion euros. The program indicates a significant change in the EU mindset, which has decided to exclude non-EU member states from accessing funds for quantum and space research (including those states which have bilateral agreements with the EU such as Switzerland, Israel and England). Considering that space exploration is at the center of international economic strategies (we talked about the geopolitical importance of space exploration here) it makes sense to ask why this move? Enjoy reading!
During my time at NASA, I remember that there were two groups of employees: those who had access to restricted areas, and those who didn’t. The selection parameter was simple: anyone who was not a U.S. citizen could not access certain places and be part of projects deemed as “high national security”. This was the source of eternal frustration for scientists, who spent more time around bureaucratic quibbles than on their own studies. Sometimes collaborating with outsiders was simply impossible, especially if the “outsiders” were scientists from blacklisted countries ( that’s not a metaphor) like China, Iran or Russia.
Any area of science nowadays is international, but for space exploration this is especially true. There are no teams dedicated to building large satellites or constellations (satellite networks), or rockets and robotic instruments that can do it all in house. Not only from the material-supply point of view (bolts from China, software from Hong Kong) but also from an intellectual perspective.
The recent EU decision to exclude non-Member partners from grants on quantum studies and space exploration therefore seems more political than scientific. What are the reasons behind this choice then?
The new rules include restrictions for studies linked to the development of quantum computers, described as an “emerging technology of global strategic importance”, but also toward other quantum areas such as simulations, communications, and remote sensing projects. The new rules also place limits upon all other space sectors including satellite communications, transport and launching.
The text, still a draft (if you want to know who leaked the documents go here, and if you want to read the others as well, you can find them here) mentions that “in order to safeguard the strategic assets of the Union, including its interests, autonomy and security, participation [in these projects] is limited to member states, including those in the European Economic Area [thus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein]. Proposals that include entities established or belonging in nations outside of this group will not be eligible“. This means that not only will research proposals from British or Swiss teams no longer be accepted, but also that research captained by groups belonging to the EU and including external members, will no longer be eligible.
Brussels’ official response is that this decision was made “to…avoid the EU’s dependence on components, materials and processes from non-EU states, and to avoid the risk of incurring in import-export restrictions or sanctions -for example through customs controls“. Science Business says that the decision might be linked to the fact that the two sectors in question are strategic to EU security. Science, too, sees this move as a reinforcement of a new policy line focused on “strategic autonomy” and “technological sovereignty”. José Achache, CEO of ALTYN and Chairman of Media Lario, suggests it could be a negotiation position. “The Swiss and Europe” says Achache “are in the middle of a bilateral agreement negotiation. It’s a negotiation that has been going on for several years, and it defines the relationship between the EU and the other non-member States. Such negotiations had become very intense over the last year, and of course the UK situation is making the process more complicated”.
From a researcher’s perspective, this makes no sense. Space and quantum sectors cannot be compartmentalized. A critical mass of brains and activities is needed in order to advance and remain competitive. In addition to the bureaucratic inefficiency that these barriers bring along, there is also the problem of the new European tendency to exclude rather than include. Tougher legislations from Brussels are seen as a way to protect the domestic economy and prevent rival nations from gaining an advantage in key research and positioning themselves as leaders in the future economy. Many researchers however believe that the best way to lose our current advantage is to stop collaborating with nations that have been involved in these fields for decades, such as Israel, Switzerland and England.
Also worth keeping in mind in the increasingly Cold War-style diplomacy picture is the “Brexit” option. Europe and Britain have for the last 5 years been engaged in a tug-of-war for power (some would say for much longer). It might be that this is another European move to force England to surrender some of its post-Brexit treaty positions (England, for example, has withdrawn its participation from the Erasmus Program and closed the door on the Schengen Treaty).
Whether this move is indicative of a more introspective Europe in a changing geopolitical climate, or in part a bit of payback between the EU and its recent ex, we will only find out as we live. Both options are plausible. On the one hand, quantum research is becoming increasingly difficult: the U.S. is considering introducing customs controls for technology, for fear that it might be useful to the military strategy of other rival nations. China too seems to have decided for a “quantum-ostracism” line (i.e. they seem to no longer collaborate externally on quantum research). On the other hand, it must be admitted that this is not the first time that Europe has used the Horizon program to negotiate its domestic policy. As an example, in 2016 Switzerland negotiated access to the full Horizon program, including the European Nuclear Research Program. As part of the Swiss inclusion was the Union’s demand that Switzerland applied the Schengen Agreement to include Croatia, i.e. that it accept the free movement agreement for all citizens of EU signatory countries.
However you look at it, it surely looks as though Europe, for better or worse, is veering towards a more conservative approach to its borders. Whether this will prove to be a winning strategic weapon, or an own-goal, we will find out in a century.
As a non-physicist I struggle to explain what quantum physics is. But if someone has read the whole article and arrived at the end wondering what it is, or cursing me for not explaining it, in a very few, banal words: it is a branch of physics that uses the qualities of light and electrons to build computers and technologies of all kinds. Its main feature is that anything built on a quantum basis can exchange information much faster than other communication systems. For example, a quantum computer could crack a 128-bit AES encryption (adopted by the US Government) in six months, instead of a few trillions of years like current computers.
The Imitation Game | The true story of Alan Turing, mathematical genius who contributed to the victory of the British during World War II, is one of the best examples of how quantum physics, research and war can mix. A great performance by Benedict Cumberbatch as Turing, but a pity about Keira Knightley who, despite my repeated protests to the Studios, keeps getting roles in good movies and systematically ruins them.
Goldeneye | A list of movies about espionage and supercomputers wouldn’t be complete without a 007 offering. The first with Judi Dench as M, in this Bond – James Bond (Pierce Brosnan in the role), must stop the bad guys from stealing “Goldeneye”, a clandestine satellite built by the Soviets during the Cold War.
Sneakers | Robert Redford (who must have a hacker’s face, because he had the same role in “Three Days of the Condor”) is testing the IT security of a company in San Francisco, when he discovers a way to crack any kind of code, and understands what could happen if this information falls into the wrong hands. Dan Aykroyd as his sidekick is a plus.
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